ISLAMABAD, Sunday, April 5, 2026 (WNP): The ongoing Iran conflict is beginning to disrupt Pakistan’s critical labour exports to Gulf countries, raising concerns over remittances and potential reverse migration, according to a report by Sputnik.
Pakistan’s economy relies heavily on overseas employment, particularly in Gulf states, where millions of Pakistani workers are employed. However, escalating regional tensions and economic uncertainty are now threatening this key economic pillar.
Financial analyst Syed Javed Hassan warned that the greater risk lies not in declining labour exports, but in the possibility of workers returning home.
“My greater fear is not how much one can export there. It is actually, do we have the potential of seeing labour come back from the Gulf countries,” he said.
Hassan noted that Pakistan may face serious challenges in absorbing returning migrants, particularly amid rising inflation, projected between 13 and 15 percent due to increasing oil prices. A large-scale return of workers could put additional strain on domestic employment markets and economic stability.
Logistical constraints further complicate the situation, as evacuating millions of workers from a conflict-affected region would be extremely difficult.
He also pointed out that alternative destinations such as Europe and China cannot fully replace the Gulf, as they require highly skilled and certified labour and can absorb only limited numbers of workers.
Pakistan has seen a steady rise in labour exports in recent years, particularly to key Gulf destinations, with an average of 300,000 to 400,000 workers leaving annually. The government had reportedly aimed to increase this number to as many as 800,000 this year. However, evolving regional developments are casting doubt on the feasibility of achieving these targets.
Hassan cautioned that a potential decline in overseas employment could significantly impact remittance inflows, which remain a cornerstone of Pakistan’s economy. A reversal in migration trends could further intensify economic pressures at home.
He has urged policymakers to adopt proactive measures, including preparing for the reintegration of returning workers and diversifying overseas employment markets to mitigate risks arising from regional instability.
